Economists are increasingly pointing to signs of strain in the U.S. labor market. On the surface, conditions appear stable: unemployment remains low, and output continues to grow. But beneath that strength, hiring has slowed to its weakest pace in more than a decade. Concerns are rising about how long the economy can maintain momentum. If the slowdown deepens, it could ripple through household finances, investment portfolios, and the broader path of economic growth.
KPMG’s chief economist Diane Swonk has called the current period a “jobless boom,” where output continues but hiring stalls. Earlier this year, analysts described a “low hire, low fire” environment. That balance has now shifted. Layoffs are rising, and job creation is falling.
Before the recent government shutdown interrupted official employment reporting, private data was already flashing caution. The hiring rate fell to 3.2 percent in August, matching its lowest level since 2013 outside the pandemic. Technology and warehousing firms, both adjusting to automation and AI-driven restructuring, have led the recent wave of job cuts.
