Recession Fears Grow
Recession fears are growing louder. Top financial institutions and economic experts are sounding the alarm over the impact of tariffs. With markets tumbling and investor confidence fading, many now believe a major economic downturn is not just possible, but likely. These hard-to-ignore warnings signal that now is the time to protect your savings.
JP Morgan raised the probability of a recession to 60% following the Trump administration’s tariff announcement. In a starkly worded report titled “There will be blood,” the firm warned, “these policies, if sustained, would likely push the US and possibly global economy into recession this year. An update of our probability scenario tree makes this point, raising the risk of a recession this year to 60%.”1
Goldman Sachs also raised its odds of a recession to 45%, up from just 20% last March. The UCLA Anderson School of Management issued a “Recession Watch” for the first time in 73 years. And Moody’s Analytics echoed those sentiments. Stating bluntly, “it feels like we are being pushed into recession.”2
Markets didn’t take the news well. After the tariff announcement, the stock market plunged. The S&P 500 fell 20% last week, erasing more than $10 trillion in market value. The broader Russell 3000 index dropped 11% in just two days. Investor anxiety over trade policy sent overseas markets spirally downward. Commodities declined as demand expectations plummeted. The VIX “fear index” spiked, a signal of rising market volatility. The overall economic picture is worsening as the job market weakens and consumer spending slows.3
Peter Schiff, chief economist at Euro Pacific Asset Management, puts the odds of recession at “pretty much a hundred percent.” Schiff added, “we’ve probably been in recession for some time now. I think we were in recession for most of last year.” He argued that official economic data has yet to catch up but will eventually be revised to reflect the downturn.4
CEOs are also bracing for economic pain. A CNBC flash survey found that 69% of CEOs expect a recession. Over one-third plan to cut jobs this year. One CEO noted that they expect to pass part of the tariff cost onto customers. Nearly all CEOs surveyed predict price increases are on the horizon. Many also fear that overseas consumers will boycott American brands. Which could lead to further job cuts.
The Fed Weighs In
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the severity of the situation. He called the tariffs “significantly larger than expected.” Powell warned that “the same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth.”
Former St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard added that tariff-driven uncertainty creates a self-fulfilling prophecy. Saying, “who wants to invest when you don’t know what the rules are going to be? And so major projects are all going to be delayed. All around the world until you get some clarity on how this is going to play out.” If recessionary forces outweigh inflation, the Fed may have to shift toward cutting rates to promote growth.5
The White House Responds
The White House, however, has pushed back on this narrative. President Trump called the tariff announcement “Liberation Day”. A spokesman stated that the president “will again restore American Greatness from Main Street to Wall Street.” The administration insists the tariffs are part of building “long term fundamentals for prosperity”. They will help resolve the long-standing trade deficit with China. Treasury Secretary Bessent claimed that Americans will benefit more from lower energy prices and interest rates than they will be hurt by falling stock prices. The White House predicts a surge in reshoring manufacturing and building new plants in the U.S.6
However, the road to reshoring may be longer than anticipated. According to the CEO survey, 45% believe it will take at least two years to bring manufacturing back to U.S. soil. In the meantime, inflation and tariffs are already delaying new construction projects.
Recession by the Numbers
The technical definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. As of now, the Atlanta Federal Reserve is projecting a -1.8% annual GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 2025. That is the worst since 2020. Consumer sentiment is also weakening. The Conference Board is reporting its lowest consumer confidence survey since 2021. That decline aligns with recent consumer spending, which has fallen far short of projections.
Gold & Recession
Amid this economic turmoil, one asset class stand out: gold. Far more than just a safeguard, gold has become a powerful indicator of investor sentiment. Prices have surged more than 10% this year, reaching record levels. Central banks, big investors, and regular Americans are turning to gold. This trend reflects a loss of trust in the financial system. A recent Bank of America survey showed fund managers were pulling out of U.S. stocks at the fastest rate ever recorded.
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Conclusion
As chaos and recession fears rise, many Americans are looking to secure their retirement savings. Now is an ideal time to learn how physical precious metals, held in a Gold IRA, can preserve the value of your assets. A Gold IRA offers protection against inflation and recession. Contact American Hartford Gold today at 800-462-0071 to find out how you can safeguard your future
