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Gold Prices Will Withstand the Fed’s Aggressive Rate Hikes

  • The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by half a point, with the promise of more to come
  • The gold market accounted for these hikes and remains strong
  • The price of gold is set to reach new heights according to several financial experts

The Fed’s Record Rate Hikes

Today, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point. The 50-basis-point increase is the biggest hike since May 2000. It’s the most aggressive step yet in its battle against the highest inflation in 40 years. Meanwhile, a possible 75-basis-point hike is on the table for June.1

Along with the raising rates, the central bank indicated it will begin reducing asset holdings on its $9 trillion balance sheet.

Many on Wall Street are concerned that the Fed’s ‘overtightening’ could lead to a recession. They feel the Fed is going too far in one direction after once calling inflation ‘transitory’. Despite the markets being prepared for both moves, there was increased volatility.

Gold Prices Will Withstand the Fed's Aggressive Rate Hikes

Gold Predicted to Overcome the Effects of Increased Rates

Gold, however, seems to be going off script when it comes to rate hikes. Traditionally, gold prices go down when rates go up. The idea being that the demand for an inflation hedge decreases. Also, fewer dollars would be required to buy an ounce of gold, reducing its dollar price. In this world rocked by inflation, war, and pandemic, old beliefs are being challenged as investors are forced to adapt. As the markets turn bearish, gold looks more and more like a bull.

Gold traders have baked an aggressive set of policy moves by the Federal Reserve into their prices. This means gold could rally if the Fed delivers as expected. It could also get support if the Fed responds to the possibility of a recession by slowing down the pace of its future rate hikes.

Gold is now seen as a winning bet in the face of the Fed’s move according to several sources.

Fidelity International believes that the price of gold is being held back. First, by aggressive interest rate increases. And second, by speculation over what Russia might do with its $140 billion worth of gold reserves.

However, Fidelity stated that gold is still an attractive investment. They cited the war in Ukraine, China’s economic slowdown, hot inflation, and the volatile stock market as reasons. The suppressed price can actually be a buying opportunity.

“Gold might have seemed the ideal asset to own, so have would-be gold investors now missed the boat? To the frustration of longer-term gold bulls, the answer is probably not,” Fidelity analysts noted. All the precious metal might need to reach new record highs is time, according to Fidelity International. 2

A recent Reuters poll of 31 analysts and traders echoes this sentiment. It concluded that the median forecast for gold prices came in at $1,920 an ounce for the April-June quarter. Gold prices are expected to hold firm this quarter as investors seek refuge from market volatility.3

Billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones is of a similar opinion. Jones shot to fame after he predicted and profited from the 1987 stock market crash. “You can’t think of a worse environment than where we are right now for financial assets,” Jones said Tuesday. “Clearly you don’t want to own bonds and stocks.” He said investors should prioritize capital preservation in such a challenging environment. One of the best ways to preserve capital is to invest in gold.4

Finally, Bloomberg Intelligence believes time is on gold’s side. They think gold will breach $2,000 once markets identify the end of the Federal Reserve rate-hike cycle. Their reasoning is that the rate hikes will contract the stock market. After the drop is great enough, the Fed will ease up on the financial tightening. When that bottom is reached, gold will launch up again. And this is what is likely to happen in 2022, according to the report. When the market predicted that rate raises were over, gold began the rally from about $1,000 an ounce to the high close of $2,063 in August 2020.5

The Fed’s clumsy attempts to fine tune the economy keep overcompensating in the wrong direction. First, it pumped in too much cash during pandemic. Now, it is aggressively taking money out. In the face of all this heavy handiness, gold is proving itself to be the stable choice. Now is the time to think long term and learn about a Gold IRA. Contact American Hartford Gold to learn how.

Notes:
1. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/04/fed-raises-rates-by-half-a-percentage-point-the-biggest-hike-in-two-decades-to-fight-inflation.html
2. https://www.fidelity.co.uk/markets-insights/investing-ideas/investing-ideas/whats-been-holding-the-gold-price-back/
3. https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2022-05-03/inflation-and-war-risks-to-buoy-gold-in-short-term-reuters-poll
4. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/03/paul-tudor-jones-says-he-cant-think-of-a-worse-financial-environment-for-stocks-or-bonds-right-now.html
5. https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/blog/commodities-appear-at-higher-risk-of-2008-style-pump-and-dump/
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