• America’s annual interest payments on federal debt have surpassed $1 trillion, straining the budget and spooking investors.
• Rising rates and growing default fears are shaking confidence in U.S. bonds and triggering credit downgrades.
• In times of fiscal uncertainty, protecting your finances with physical gold can provide lasting stability and security.

More Debt, More Risk of Crisis

The U.S. government’s interest payments on its debt have surpassed a staggering $1 trillion annually. That figure is larger than the defense budget and more than the combined costs of Medicaid, disability insurance, and food stamps. This development marks a turning point in the nation’s fiscal stability. And raises major concerns for investors, policymakers, and everyday Americans alike.

Source of Bond Trouble

Every time the federal government runs a budget deficit, it fills the gap by auctioning bonds on the open market. To entice investors to buy these bonds, the government must offer interest, more so when doubts grow about its ability to repay. As debt accumulates, servicing past debt becomes costlier. And sets off a dangerous chain reaction where interest payments compound into future debt. This creates a scenario that some economists now warn may lead to a full-blown economic crisis.

¹

A Fiscal “Heart Attack” Is on the Horizon

Famed investor Ray Dalio didn’t mince words when he said the U.S. has “three years, give or take a year” to avert an economic “heart attack.” He believes America is approaching a “death spiral”. That’s where debt levels become so high that the only way to sustain them is by taking on even more debt, at even higher interest rates.²

Dalio noted that these warning signs are often ignored by lawmakers until the crisis is unavoidable. “The change is unthinkable—and then it happens suddenly,” he said. ³

Treasurys No Longer Risk-Free?

Ben Harris of the Brookings Institution put it plainly. If the perceived risk of default on U.S. Treasury bonds goes from 0% to even 0.2%, “that is a massive shift” because we are talking about trillions of dollars. Treasurys have long been considered the safest investment in the world. But if markets begin to treat them as risky, the entire financial system could be thrown into turmoil.

This erosion of confidence is already underway. Investors are increasingly turning away from U.S. bonds and looking instead to European and Asian markets for more secure options. In May, the interest rate on a 30-year U.S. government bond spiked to its highest level since 2023. Evidence that markets are beginning to demand greater compensation for taking on U.S. debt.

Downgrades and Death Spirals

The U.S. has already been downgraded by all three major credit rating agencies. In 2023, Fitch stripped the country of its AAA rating. More recently, Moody’s downgraded the U.S. from AAA to AA1. These downgrades raise borrowing costs. And in turn, amplify the chances of entering a debt death spiral.

Power of the Bond Market

President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill may not pass. Not because of Congress, but from the bond market. As interest costs soar, investors, not lawmakers, are beginning to dictate the terms of fiscal policy. With borrowing costs rising, even popular tax cuts or spending packages face resistance from a financial system that may no longer tolerate higher deficits.

Events in the United Kingdom offer a sobering lesson. A wave of bond market sell-offs forced the British government to reverse plans for tax cuts. It led to the dismissal of Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng and the resignation of Prime Minister Liz Truss. Banks like Citigroup openly declared they would continue to punish the UK unless it changed course. That’s the power of the bond market.

What This Means for Americans

Rising federal interest costs don’t just affect Washington, they hit your wallet too. Higher interest rates make everything more expensive. That includes mortgages, credit cards, car loans, student debt, and small business financing. These increased costs ripple through the economy, stifling manufacturing, discouraging investment, and ultimately slowing growth.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that if the yield on the 10-year Treasury note stays at current levels, it would add $1.8 trillion in interest payments. If yields rise, the damage could be much worse. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has warned that a surge in yields could “crack the bond market,” prompting panic among regulators.⁴

A Coming Reckoning

Economists don’t agree on when a full-blown crisis might erupt, but they agree it’s coming. Former IMF economist Kenneth Rogoff noted that most defaults don’t wait for the math to force them. They happen when confidence collapses. “Almost every country default—either through outright default or high inflation—occurs long before debt calculus forces it to,” he said.⁵

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has stated that the U.S. will never default, suggesting it could always “inflate its debt away.” But that solution comes with its own risks: rampant inflation, a falling dollar, and the loss of global trust in U.S. financial leadership.⁶

Conclusion

With the debt crisis looming, it’s more important than ever to think about how to protect your wealth. As faith in Treasurys wanes and borrowing costs rise, the financial landscape is growing increasingly uncertain.

In times of economic instability, many investors turn to physical gold. Gold isn’t just a hedge against inflation. It’s a hedge against uncertainty, credit downgrades, and the growing possibility of fiscal failure. At American Hartford Gold, we help Americans safeguard their savings with physical gold and silver that you can hold in your hand or place in a Gold IRA. To learn more, call us today at 800-462-0071.

Notes:
1. https://navellier.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/How-Countries-Go-Broke.jpg
2. https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/wall-street-bond-market-us-debt-990e12e9?mod=mhp
3. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/ray-dalio-we-should-be-afraid-of-the-bond-market/ar-AA1G1HNF?ocid=widgetonlockscreen&cvid=eeceb485bd9a41909134c2e15f8824cd&ei=26
4. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jamie-dimons-bond-market-warnings-put-investors-on-alert-to-diversify-outside-u-s-f8e4c924
5. https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/wall-street-bond-market-us-debt-990e12e9?mod=mhp
6. https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/wall-street-bond-market-us-debt-990e12e9?mod=mhp

 

 

 

Recession Risks in Focus

After months of warning signs, recession fears in the U.S. have shifted. But they haven’t gone away. Leading economists and major banks have revised their forecasts in response to a recent pause in tariff escalation. Goldman Sachs dropped its recession probability over the next year to 35%. JPMorgan Chase says risks remain “elevated, but now below 50%.” Before anyone breathes a sigh of relief, experts warn this may be a temporary reprieve, not a turning point.¹

The truth is, a recession may have only been delayed, not avoided. The recent tariff pause offers a brief respite. Yet the potential for trade disruptions remains. As former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers put it, “The pause is certainly better… but anybody who thinks the genie is back in the bottle… should reconsider their position.” That uncertainty is precisely why this is the moment to prepare. And one of the most time-tested ways to prepare is by owning physical gold, especially in a Gold IRA.²

Recession Red Flags

The administration has temporarily backed off its most aggressive tariff policies. They’ve lowered the China tariff rate from 145% to 30% for 90 days. However, many other indicators point toward economic trouble ahead.

Start with CEO sentiment. According to The Conference Board’s latest Measure of CEO Confidence, overall confidence has dropped to 34. That’s a 26-point fall and the lowest since the height of the pandemic in late 2022. More than half of CEOs expect conditions to worsen in the next six months, both for the overall economy and within their industries. That pessimism is widespread. 82% of CEOs say the economy is worse now than it was just six months ago.³

The list of prominent CEOs bracing for a downturn includes notable investors like Jamie Dimon, Ray Dalio, and Warren Buffett. Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on a staggering $347 billion in cash. That cash pile isn’t economic confidence, it’s caution.

What’s driving their concern? A convergence of troubling factors:

• Historically high stock market valuations—27 times earnings, compared to a 50-year average of 20. Expect a return to the mean.
• A ballooning national debt and unsustainable government interest payments
• Weakness in key sectors like transportation and oil
• Rising delinquencies on credit cards and student loans
• Falling consumer sentiment and confidence
• Trade tensions that, while cooled for now, could reignite at any moment
•  

⁴

Any one of these would be concerning. Taken together, they paint a picture of a fragile economic environment where a downturn isn’t just possible, it’s likely.

Gold Signals Loss of Confidence in the System

Gold is doing what it always does in times of uncertainty, offer stability. Spot gold prices recently climbed back above $3,300 per ounce. BNP Paribas forecasts prices will average $3,850 in the fourth quarter. Analysts say this is a sign that investors are losing faith in traditional financial assets. As Seeking Alpha noted, “Gold at all-time highs may signal a loss of confidence in paper assets and the system.”⁵

Lingering Risk

Even if a technical recession (defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth) doesn’t materialize in the next few months, many of the risks remain. The downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody’s in May due to rising debt didn’t cause a major panic. It did, however, push bond yields higher and make our debt more expensive. The downgrade is a reminder of how close we are to instability.

Add to that the volatility of the labor market. While unemployment remains historically low at 4.2%, many analysts expect it to rise. Goldman Sachs predicts it could reach 4.7% by year’s end. A jump of just 0.5% in the three-month unemployment average would trigger the “Sahm Rule” indicator of a recession. And if tariffs return in force, as Trump has hinted, production disruptions and retaliatory actions could quickly push the economy over the edge.⁶

Conclusion

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) doesn’t officially declare a recession until we’re already deep into one. And by then, it’s often too late to act. The time to protect your portfolio is before the downturn hits. Physical gold, held in a Gold IRA, offers long-term protection against inflation, market volatility, and economic downturns.

Don’t wait for headlines to confirm what the warning signs already suggest. Call American Hartford Gold today at 800-462-0071 to learn how a Gold IRA can help safeguard your retirement.

Notes:

1. https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2025/05/06/recession-odds-gdp-economy-labor-market-unemployment-consumer-confidence/
2. https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2025/05/06/recession-odds-gdp-economy-labor-market-unemployment-consumer-confidence/
3. https://www.thestreet.com/economy/forget-tariffs-heres-why-ceos-worry-about-a-looming-recession
4. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpwz9kl12l1o
5. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4791247-u-s-debt-downgrade-and-tariffs-the-economic-reset-recession-is-needed-and-its-coming
6. https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2025/05/06/recession-odds-gdp-economy-labor-market-unemployment-consumer-confidence/

 

 

• The U.S. economy is undergoing a painful but strategic shift away from government-funded growth.
• Investors should brace for market volatility as public spending cuts take effect.
• Physical gold can help protect your finances during periods of economic uncertainty.

“Detox” to Restore Equilibrium

Driven by a sweeping economic “detox,” the U.S. is entering a period of profound transition. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warns that this shift could bring short-term pain as the country breaks its dependence on massive government spending. The goal? To shift power back to the private sector and lay the foundation for a more sustainable financial future. But what does that mean for investors and for everyday Americans trying to protect their retirement savings?

A Shift from Public to Private

The administration is setting a clear course. Reduce government spending, promote private sector growth, and end the policies that artificially inflated the stock market during the Biden years. According to Bessent, “There’s going to be a natural adjustment as we move away from public spending to private spending. The market and the economy have just become hooked, and we’ve become addicted to this government spending. And there’s going to be a detox period.”1

That detox has already begun. Stock markets are cooling off. Consumer confidence is falling. A key gauge of U.S. manufacturing is leaning toward stagnation. Meanwhile, the most recent jobs report came in below expectations, revealing early signs of economic strain. And in March 2025, the S&P 500 dropped 6%, reflecting investor unease with the spending cuts and tariff policies being rolled out.

Short-Term Disruption, Long-Term Strategy

Bessent made it clear. This isn’t about avoiding pain. It’s about enduring it now to build a healthier, more balanced economy in the future. The strategy includes:

1. Reducing Government Spending:

The administration is cutting public spending across the board, including layoffs in the public sector. Bessent put it bluntly: “In the U.S., we do not have a revenue problem, we have a spending problem.”2

3

2. Supporting Private Sector Growth:

By extending tax cuts and rolling out pro-growth policies like deregulation and streamlined permitting for energy projects, the administration hopes to foster innovation in AI, manufacturing, and energy. The goal is to replace government-driven growth with business-led expansion.

3. Using Tariffs to Offset Revenue Losses:

New tariffs, such as 50% on EU imports and 25% on foreign-made iPhones, are aimed at boosting American industry. They can also help to cover the cost of extending tax cuts.

But this strategy isn’t without risk.

What Could Go Wrong?

While the administration sees opportunity, others see volatility.

Recession Fears:

Abrupt cuts to federal spending could cause deeper slowdowns if the private sector doesn’t ramp up quickly enough. The February 2025 unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, a sign that the labor market may already be struggling.

Inflation Concerns:

Bessent describes tariff-related price hikes as “a one-time price adjustment,.” Yet, analysts are warning they could hit consumers hard. Especially if inflation remains an ongoing challenge.

Political Gridlock:

Democrats in Congress or legal challenges in the courts could block deregulation. Thereby delaying the expected benefits of the detox.

Even so, the administration remains optimistic. The long-term forecast is for GDP growth exceeding 3% by mid-2026. It would be fueled by reshored manufacturing, energy independence, and advancements in AI productivity.

But as Bessent maintains that we need to navigate this detox period to reach a sustainable equilibrium.

Protecting Your Wealth Through the Detox

History shows that periods of economic transition can bring about market instability. Since the stock market was artificially inflated under prior policies, then today’s corrections are not just likely, they may be unavoidable.

That’s where physical gold comes in.

Gold has long served as a hedge against uncertainty. During times of volatility, recession, or inflation, gold maintains its value. Even while paper assets falter. In a “detoxing” economy, it may be wise to consider your retirement portfolio exposure. Now could be the time to rebalance your portfolio for stability and long-term value.

Conclusion

Whether you’re detoxing from sugar, stress, or government stimulus, one thing is true, the process isn’t easy. But it can lead to strength and resilience in the long run.

The same is true for the U.S. economy. The current administration is betting that less government and more private enterprise will spark sustainable growth. But as we go through the transition, Americans must prepare for turbulence.

To safeguard your savings and retirement for the long-term, consider diversifying with physical gold in a Gold IRA. American Hartford Gold makes the process simple and secure. We help you protect your wealth when it matters most.

Call American Hartford Gold today at 800-462-0071 to learn how you can take the next step toward financial security.

Notes:

1. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/03/07/trump-treasury-secretary-detox-economy/81932662007/

2. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/13/bessent-says-a-detox-period-for-the-economy-does-not-have-to-be-a-recession.html

3. https://www.crfb.org/sites/default/files/styles/media_image_default/public/images/Slide8.jpg.webp?itok=kcCS_kdF

 

 

• Inflation expectations have surged to levels not seen since the early 1980s.
• Consumer confidence is collapsing amid rising prices and growing fears of job losses.
• Physical gold offers a reliable way to protect your finances during times of economic uncertainty.

 Consumer’s Grim Outlook

Inflation expectations are on the rise and consumer sentiment is falling fast. Making for a troubling combination that signals deeper economic strain ahead. When people begin to expect prices to keep climbing and feel less confident about the future, spending slows, and financial uncertainty grows.

The University of Michigan released their latest consumer survey. Americans now expect prices to jump by 7.3% over the next year. That is the highest inflation expectation recorded since 1981. At the same time, consumer sentiment plunged to new lows. The drop was due, in part, by the threat of new tariffs and the ripple effects of rising costs. This sharp shift in outlook has once again brought gold into focus as a time-tested hedge against inflation and volatility.¹

The Tariff Effect

One of the driving forces behind rising inflation expectations is the growing burden of tariffs. In fact, the effective tariff rate in the United States is now 17.8%, the highest it has been since 1934. The concern is not just academic. Major companies are sounding alarms about the potential impact on prices.²

Walmart, along with more than 400 other companies in the S&P 500, issued a warning. They said higher tariffs on imported goods from China could soon be passed along to American consumers. Even after recent adjustments, many tariffs remain steep. Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said, “even at the reduced levels, the higher tariffs will result in higher prices.”³

Estimates from Yale University’s Tobin Center for Economic Policy suggest the impact could be significant. Their analysis shows the average American household could face an additional $2,800 in annual costs due to these tariffs.

Long Term Inflation Expectations Reach a Historic High

There aren’t just short-term concerns. The University of Michigan’s report also revealed long-term inflation expectations have increased. They reflect what consumers believe will happen over the next five years.

Joanne Hsu is director of the University of Michigan’s consumer surveys. She points out that inflation expectations influence real economic behavior. When people believe prices will go up sharply, they often speed up purchases. Or they push for higher wages. The very things that lead to actual inflation.

Consumer psychology remains fragile despite signs that inflation may be easing. April inflation showed the slowest annual pace since February 2021. “Uncertainty over trade policy continues to dominate consumers’ thinking about the economy,” Hsu said.⁴

⁵

This shift in expectations also signals a growing disconnect between “hard data,” like retail sales and job reports, and “soft data,” such as consumer sentiment. Retail sales remained positive in April. U.S. payrolls rose by 177,000. And unemployment held steady at a historically low 4.2%. Despite this, “consumers continue to express somber views about the economy,” Hsu said.

Consumer Sentiment Collapse

There was another troubling sign from the survey. The University of Michigan’s May consumer sentiment index dropped 30% drop since December. That’s the second-lowest level ever recorded. 

The main reason behind the decline is widespread anxiety about the impact of tariffs and potential job losses. Two-thirds of respondents now expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead. That’s the largest share since 2009.

Perhaps most notably, this sentiment shift is not limited to lower-income Americans. “We’re still seeing huge declines across income but most notably at the top of the income distribution,” Joanne Hsu continued.⁶

Some economists worry that resilience isn’t going to hold this time around. Americans are worried about their income and the labor market in ways not seen in 2022. The survey suggests consumers expect a large shock to their personal finances. Many are reporting weakening incomes. Assessments of personal finances fell 10 points in early May to the lowest since 2009. Meanwhile, the outlook on their future finances dropped to the lowest on record.

Wall Street Sees the Risk

JPMorgan recognizes the shift in sentiment. Their CEO, Jamie Dimon, recently warned against complacency in the face of mounting risks. He cited everything from inflation and credit spreads to geopolitics. Dimon said the chances of elevated inflation and stagflation are greater than people think. He also cautioned that America’s overvalued asset prices aren’t accounting for the impacts of a potential downturn.

JPMorgan has already taken steps to prepare for possible turbulence. The bank said it had added $973 million to the pile of money it sets aside to cover soured loans. Dwarfing analyst expectations. Moves like this highlight the growing concern over the economy’s direction.⁷

Conclusion

Inflation expectations are at their highest in decades and consumer confidence is near record lows. Now is a critical time to reassess your financial strategy. Physical gold, whether in the form of coins, bars, or in a Gold IRA, offers a powerful hedge against inflation. Whether actual or expected.

As hopes dim, gold is increasingly seen as insurance against an uncertain future. To learn how to protect your retirement with physical gold, call American Hartford Gold today at 800-462-0071.

Notes:
1. https://www.retaildive.com/news/inflation-expectations-12-months-surge-73-percent-fueled-by-tariff-worry-Trump-unemployment/748418/
2. https://www.retaildive.com/news/inflation-expectations-12-months-surge-73-percent-fueled-by-tariff-worry-Trump-unemployment/748418/
3. https://www.retaildive.com/news/inflation-expectations-12-months-surge-73-percent-fueled-by-tariff-worry-Trump-unemployment/748418/
4. https://www.retaildive.com/news/inflation-expectations-12-months-surge-73-percent-fueled-by-tariff-worry-Trump-unemployment/748418/
5. https://x.com/YunaIoana/status/1923722227339461032
6. https://www.axios.com/2025/05/19/tariffs-consumer-economy-sentiment
7. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-19/jpmorgan-s-dimon-warns-against-complacency-amid-mounting-risks

 

• The upcoming BRICS Summit may redefine global economic power, challenging U.S. dollar dominance.
• De-dollarization is accelerating, with BRICS nations conducting 67% of trade in local currencies.
• Physical gold emerges as a critical hedge against currency instability as BRICS influence grows.

Global Power Shift Endangers Financial Security

In just a couple of months the world economy may shift irrevocably. The 17th BRICS Summit convenes this July in Rio de Janeiro. It marks Brazil’s turn at the helm of an expanded bloc that now includes Indonesia, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates alongside its original five members. This meeting could usher in a truly multipolar era as BRICS nations rise at the expense of the U.S. dollar. And bring potentially deep consequences to the value of your retirement funds.

BRICS Ascendant

¹

Combined gross domestic product (GDP) in purchasing power parity (PPP) of the BRICS Plus and G7 countries from 2000 to 2025

Since the BRICS bloc’s GDP growth hit 3.4% in 2025, more than double the U.S. forecast of 1.4%, investors can’t ignore their momentum. High‑growth BRICS members span from Ethiopia at 6.6% to India at 6.2% and Indonesia at 4.7%. Meanwhile China posts 4% and South Africa 3.4%. Even Brazil, the host of July’s summit, is expected to expand by 2.3%. In contrast, America is facing limited growth and threatened trade. Domestic markets are left playing catch‑up and vulnerable to global headwinds.²

Beyond headline GDP, BRICS nations now account for 40% of global output. They are projected to command 41% of world purchasing‑power parity in 2025 . That scale gives them outsized sway over commodity markets. From oil and gas supplied by Russia and food exports from Brazil to strategic minerals sourced throughout the bloc. Rodrigo Cezar of the Getulio Vargas Foundation noted that BRICS will be “very relevant in terms of dictating or giving direction to the prices of these materials.” U.S. consumers may find themselves at their mercy.³

De-dollarization Accelerates

This economic heft underpins a deliberate move away from the U.S. dollar. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov revealed that just 33% of intra‑BRICS trade is now settled in dollars. The remaining 67% is conducted in local currencies. China’s yuan alone is set to represent 24% of those transactions by year‑end. At the same time, member states are developing their own settlement platforms and credit lines to bolster autonomy . By fragmenting dollar dominance, the bloc not only shields itself from U.S. monetary policy. They are also chipping away at Washington’s financial leverage.⁴

BRICS cohesion shouldn’t be doubted. Russia and China recently signed a comprehensive strategic partnership. Russian President Vladimir Putin declared, “In our joint statement with Xi Jinping, we set ambitious tasks… In particular, we are talking about ensuring a significant qualitative advancement of Russian‑Chinese trade and investment by 2030.”⁵

This pact reinforces the alliance’s economic, scientific, and digital integration. Further eroding the dollar’s, and the U.S.’s, centrality.

Wall Street Concern

Wall Street’s biggest names are sounding alarms. In its latest research, JP Morgan warned that the dollar’s “longstanding overvaluation is beginning to unwind.” They are predicting a 10%–20% decline in the U.S. Dollar Index over the medium term. A 10% drop would push the index into the 90s; a 20% slide could see it sink into the low 80s. These projections show the risks ahead for dollar‑denominated assets and portfolios.⁶

In practical terms, this means your dollar won’t stretch as far. Everyday goods imported from abroad could become more expensive. In other words, a weaker dollar erodes the purchasing power of your savings.

At Berkshire Hathaway’s 60th annual meeting, Warren Buffett warned against the U.S. dollar. He cautioned, “We would not really invest in a currency … that is going to hell.” Buffett criticized “alarming” fiscal behavior. He hinted that Berkshire could take positions in other currencies. Saying “There could be things happening in the United States that make us want to own a lot of other currencies”. ⁷

Gold

In a developing era of multipolar currencies and de‑dollarization, gold stands out as a proven store of value. Unlike paper monies, gold cannot be printed or devalued by fiscal policy. Its scarcity and global recognition make it the ultimate hedge. History shows that during periods of currency weakness, gold preserves purchasing power. And provides portfolio stability.

For those planning retirement, a Gold IRA offers both protection and peace of mind. It allows you to sidestep the risks of paper currency and financial system fragility. The BRICS’ rising influence and the dollar’s potential reset are creating uncertainty. Having a tangible asset like gold can help ensure your nest egg weathers any storm.

Conclusion

Don’t wait to see how the 17th BRICS Summit reshapes the monetary order. Learn about securing your retirement today by adding physical gold to your portfolio. Call American Hartford Gold at 800-462-0071 to find out how a Gold IRA can safeguard your future against the shifts in global economic power.

Notes:
1. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1412418/gdp-development-g7-brics/
2. https://watcher.guru/news/gdp-of-brics-countries-outperforms-global-average-us-distantly-behind
3. https://watcher.guru/news/gdp-of-brics-countries-outperforms-global-average-us-distantly-behind
4. https://www.cointribune.com/en/the-brics-are-accelerating-their-transition-to-local-currencies/
5. https://watcher.guru/news/brics-china-russia-announce-new-major-partnership
6. https://watcher.guru/news/brics-jp-morgan-predicts-20-decline-in-the-us-dollar
7. https://watcher.guru/news/brics-warren-buffett-says-us-dollar-going-to-hell-invests-in-local-currencies

 

• America’s $36.2 trillion national debt poses a serious threat to economic stability.
• Rising interest rates and reliance on foreign debt holders are compounding the risk.
• Gold offers a proven way to safeguard wealth from the consequences of runaway debt.

Rising Debt, Rising Risk

Beneath the daily headlines about tariffs, inflation, and stock market swings lies a deeper and more dangerous threat to the U.S. economy: the national debt. At $36.2 trillion and rising fast, America’s debt burden is more than just a budget problem, it’s a potential economic catastrophe. While politicians talk about solutions but rarely act, many Americans are taking steps to protect themselves. One increasingly popular option? Physical gold and Gold IRAs.

An Unsustainable Path

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been blunt. He said the national debt is on an “unsustainable” path. Testifying before the House of Representatives, Bessent stated, “We do not have a revenue problem: we have a spending problem. We have to bring this spending under control.”¹

²

Despite the urgency, government spending continues to climb. A new federal budget bill currently in Congress could add up to $29 trillion to the national debt over the next decade. This proposal outlines spending from 2025 through 2034. And the reaction from voters has been loud and clear.³

A recent survey shows that 92% of Democrats, 88% of independents, and 80% of Republicans say recent economic turmoil has increased their concern about the national debt. 76% of all voters want the president and Congress to make tackling the debt a top priority. ⁴

Michael A. Peterson, CEO of the Peterson Foundation, summed it up. He said, “With significant market volatility and the United States already on a dangerously unsustainable fiscal path, Americans are sounding the alarm.”⁵

Debt and Foreign Influence

The national debt isn’t just a domestic issue, it’s also a point of vulnerability on the world stage. Foreign nations like Japan, China, and the UK are among the top holders of U.S. Treasuries. This makes America dependent on their continued willingness to finance U.S. spending.

Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries. They recently floated the idea of selling off its holdings as part of trade negotiations. Although Japanese officials later walked back the threat, the mere suggestion revealed a troubling truth. The U.S. relies heavily on foreign countries to absorb its growing debt.

If a nation like Japan or China were to sell a large volume of Treasuries, it could spark a broader sell-off. This would raise borrowing costs for Washington and destabilize global financial markets.

Spending Pressure and Inflation Fears

Despite targeted cuts, layoffs, and fraud crackdowns, federal spending keeps climbing. It’s driven largely by programs that are politically untouchable. Military and veteran benefits, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and interest on the debt account for 62% of all federal spending. A ratio that hasn’t changed much in a decade.⁶

Even Donald Trump’s administration, which has promised to rein in spending, has seen federal expenditures rise. In the first 100 days of the current year, federal spending was more than $200 billion higher than the same period the year before.

The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) claims to have saved $160 billion. But that amounts to just 0.5% of the national debt, a drop in the bucket.⁷

Nat Malkus is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. He put it plainly: “If you really want to cut federal spending, you’re going to have to cut into the programs where the lion’s share of the money is. That’s Medicare and Medicaid, Social Security, and we spend a lot of money on interest.”⁸

Rising Interest Rates and the Debt Spiral

The U.S. government has issued over $29 trillion in debt in the last year alone, four times the gross issuance of a decade ago. Meanwhile, the average interest rate on federal debt has climbed from 1.6% in 2022 to 3.3% today. This is largely due to the replacement of older, low-yield bonds with new, higher-interest debt.⁹

According to the Peterson Foundation, more than $9.3 trillion in federal debt will mature by March 2026. $3.1 trillion of it was originally issued at lower interest rates. As this debt is reissued at higher yields, interest payments will rise sharply.¹⁰

The Congressional Budget Office now projects the average interest rate on the national debt will rise to 3.6% in coming years. If rates go even higher than projected, the cost of servicing the debt will balloon further. As a result, a dangerous feedback loop, a ‘debt death spiral’, could emerge.

A Warning from Warren Buffett

The Oracle of Omaha is stepping down, but before he does, he addressed the growing debt crisis. He warned that current government spending levels are unsustainable. And that the annual deficit is spiraling out of control.

Buffett acknowledged that the U.S. technically can’t default. It can always print money to pay its obligations. But doing so, he cautioned, comes at a steep price: inflation and reduced purchasing power for ordinary Americans.

Conclusion

In the face of an exploding national debt, rising interest costs, and geopolitical uncertainty, many Americans are looking to protect their savings. One smart way to safeguard your retirement portfolio is by putting physical gold into a Gold IRA. A Gold IRA allows you to hold tangible assets, like gold coins and bars, in a tax-advantaged retirement account. It can help preserve the value of your wealth even as the dollar’s value declines.

At American Hartford Gold, we help clients take control of their financial futures in uncertain times. Call us today at 800-462-0071 to learn more about how a Gold IRA can protect what you’ve worked so hard to build.

Notes:
1. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/06/trump-tariffs-ford-carney-ftse-100-markets-latest-news-uk/
2. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61270
3. https://dayton247now.com/news/nation-world/voters-express-deep-concern-over-national-debt-economy-inflation-congress-trillions-budget-interest-rates-mortgage
4. https://dayton247now.com/news/nation-world/voters-express-deep-concern-over-national-debt-economy-inflation-congress-trillions-budget-interest-rates-mortgage
5. https://dayton247now.com/news/nation-world/voters-express-deep-concern-over-national-debt-economy-inflation-congress-trillions-budget-interest-rates-mortgage
6. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-promised-cuts-spent-200-billion-more/
7. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-promised-cuts-spent-200-billion-more/
8. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-promised-cuts-spent-200-billion-more/
9. https://www.barrons.com/articles/treasury-bond-yields-national-debt-e9c81fc1
10. https://www.barrons.com/articles/treasury-bond-yields-national-debt-e9c81fc1

 

• The U.S. dollar is facing a crisis of confidence, threatening long-term economic stability.
• Foreign investors are retreating from dollar-based assets, accelerating the dollar’s decline.
• Protect your finances from inflation and currency risk by owning physical gold.

The Dollar Continues to Slide

For decades, the U.S. dollar has served as the world’s most trusted currency. It’s been buoyed by its role as the global reserve currency and its reputation as a safe haven during turmoil. But today, the dollar is in a crisis of confidence, putting the retirement savings of millions of Americans at stake.

Tariffs & the Dollar

In theory, tariffs should boost the dollar by making imports costlier, reducing demand for foreign currencies, and spurring interest rate hikes that attract capital. Historically, market turbulence has sent investors running to the dollar.

But not this time.

¹

Since peaking in January, the dollar has steadily weakened. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is down more than 8% in 2025 and hit a three-year low. In April, the dollar plunged 4.5%—its worst monthly drop since 2022. Instead of reinforcing dollar strength, recent tariffs have added to investor anxiety, driving capital away from dollar-based assets.²

Not Just a Currency Slide—A Confidence Crisis

Goldman Sachs calls this a “confidence crisis.” Chief economist Jan Hatzius stated, “With all due humility, I believe that the recent dollar depreciation of 5% on a broad trade-weighted basis has considerably further to go.” Foreign investors, who hold over $22 trillion in U.S. assets, are now pulling back. Especially from U.S. stocks, which are typically unhedged against currency losses. As the dollar falls, their exposure grows riskier.³

This could have far-reaching consequences. With a current annual deficit of $1.1 trillion, the U.S. depends heavily on foreign capital inflows. A slowdown or reversal in that flow could accelerate the dollar’s decline and shake global markets.

A New Dollar Downcycle

Economists see worrying parallels to past dollar downcycles in the 1980s and early 2000s, when the dollar lost up to 30% of its value. Many believe we’re entering another prolonged decline.

Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, warned, “Both institutional investors and central banks are having to begin to think about what would happen should the dollar and the Treasury market no longer be the safe haven.” HSBC’s Frederic Neumann added that bond market volatility is likely to continue, putting further pressure on the dollar.⁴

Mounting Economic & Policy Risks

Multiple forces are undermining confidence in the dollar:

Recession fears: Optimism from tax cuts and deregulation has faded amid escalating trade wars and erratic policies.

Stagflation threat: Investors fear stagnant growth plus inflation will reduce real returns and spook Treasury buyers.

Slowing growth: The IMF projects U.S. GDP will fall to 1.8% in 2025, down from 2.8%, undercutting a key dollar strength pillar.

Fiscal imbalance: U.S. interest payments hit $949 billion in 2024, exceeding even defense spending.

Stock and debt risk: Household stock exposure is near record highs, and a major correction could cut consumer spending and GDP. With much of corporate debt maturing by 2027, a downturn could trigger defaults and strain an already fragile banking system.

A Global Shift Away from the Dollar

Geopolitical rivals are accelerating efforts to de-dollarize. The BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) are pushing alternatives, while the euro and yen gain ground. The dollar may be losing its unipolar dominance in a shift toward a multipolar currency system.

History shows that even reserve currencies are not invincible. The British pound once held this role before being supplanted by the dollar. Now, the dollar faces a similar test.

Consequences of a Declining Dollar

If the dollar continues to fall, the effects on the U.S. economy could be severe:

Higher import prices: U.S. consumers and businesses pay more for goods from abroad, adding to inflation.

Weaker travel power: Americans abroad get less for their dollars, while the U.S. becomes cheaper for tourists.

Loss of reserve status: Central banks may diversify into other currencies, weakening the dollar further and raising U.S. borrowing costs.

Increased debt burden: Higher interest rates may be needed to attract capital, making debt more expensive to service.

Market volatility: Stock and bond markets could face more risk as foreign capital exits.

Global instability: If others devalue their currencies in response, global trade could suffer.

Gold Stands Out

As recent record prices reflect, physical gold stands out as a reliable hedge in times of monetary and economic instability. That’s due to a number of reasons:

Inverse correlation: Gold usually rises as the dollar falls.

Inflation hedge: Gold helps preserve purchasing power as fiat currencies lose value.

Safe-haven appeal: Gold attracts investors during crises, boosting demand and price.

Tangible security: Unlike digital assets, gold can’t be inflated, hacked or frozen.

Global demand: Central banks are stockpiling gold to diversify away from the dollar.

Debt-free value: Gold isn’t tied to any country’s liabilities or politics.

Historical performance: Gold has consistently outpaced the dollar during inflationary and currency crises.

Conclusion

As the dollar’s troubles mount, protecting your financial future becomes more urgent. A Gold IRA from American Hartford Gold provides long-term security against inflation, currency decline, and market turbulence.

Call 800-462-0071 to learn how to diversify your retirement portfolio with physical gold and protect your purchasing power.

Notes:
1. https://wolfstreet.com/2025/04/11/omg-the-dollar-is-collapsing-or-whatever/
2. https://watcher.guru/news/goldman-sachs-u-s-dollar-has-much-further-to-fall-will-foreign-investors-abandon-u-s-assets
3. https://watcher.guru/news/goldman-sachs-u-s-dollar-has-much-further-to-fall-will-foreign-investors-abandon-u-s-assets
4. https://watcher.guru/news/de-dollarization-us-dollars-decline-just-starting-says-analyst

 

Markets are showing alarming similarities to the early days of the Great Depression.

Investor confidence is shaken as recession risks and policy instability grow.

Americans are protecting their portfolios from uncertainty with the stability of physical gold.

Stocks Continue to Slide

Investors and analysts are drawing eerie parallels between today’s market and the onset of the Great Depression. The Dow Jones Industrial Average recently lost nearly 1,000 points. Prompting the Wall Street Journal to note that the market was “headed for its worst April performance since 1932.” For historical context, that was during the darkest days of the Great Depression, a time few thought they’d see echoed again.¹

But now, many fear that history may be repeating itself.

²

S&P 500 Decline Raises Alarm

The S&P 500 has dropped 9% since former President Trump announced his reciprocal tariff policy. It’s logged the worst performance since Inauguration Day for any president since 1928. Meanwhile, the dollar has sunk to its lowest level since March 2022. And the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has risen. Both mark a shift away from traditional safe havens.³

This instability has left investors with few safe spots to turn to. Uncertainty reigns, and, as one analyst put it, “no one wants to invest because of instability and the unknowable future.”

IMF Recession Warning and Fed Drama

That fear is backed by data. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the U.S. economy faces rising headwinds. The IMF warned that tariffs would slow global growth and raised the odds of a U.S. recession from 25% to 40%. Unsettling policy moves haven’t helped. Trump’s threats to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell sent the markets reeling, weakening the dollar even further. Analysts warn that removing Powell could trigger an even more severe drop.

Executives Lose Confidence

Executives aren’t optimistic either. Many corporate leaders doubt that Trump’s trade negotiations will lead to meaningful outcomes. During this earnings season, usually a time when stocks climb, the tone has shifted sharply. Bank of America reported that the ratio of positive to negative comments on macroeconomic conditions has dropped well below average. It is on track for the worst proportion since 2009.

Some companies are even withdrawing full-year guidance altogether. Kimberly-Clark lowered its profit expectations. Automakers have slashed their earnings outlooks the most. As uncertainty rises, Bank of America warns of “a potential information vacuum” as companies avoid making predictions. Much like they did during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Volatility and Fear Grip Investors

Volatility remains high. The VIX “fear gauge” is elevated. It is reflecting widespread investor concern about the ongoing trade war and expectations of continued turbulence ahead. Bearish sentiment is rising among individual investors. Expectations that stock prices will fall has hovered above 50% for more than eight consecutive weeks. According to the American Association of Individual Investors, that’s the longest-lasting bear majority on record since tracking began in 1987.

Even though the market managed a wild rebound on Tuesday, climbing nearly 700 points, investors remain cautious. A portfolio manager at Argent Capital Management said, “Lots of uncertainty, not lots of answers, kind of a frustrating environment today for investors. The one feeling that I feel like I can identify is the longer we remain in this limbo, the worse it gets for the economy.”⁴

Gold Surges as the New Safe Haven

In the face of all this, one asset is bucking the trend: gold.

Gold has soared above $3,500 an ounce for the first time ever in a dramatic “flight to safety.” It continues a powerful rally that began at $2,623 an ounce at the start of the year. In just a matter of weeks, gold has smashed through multiple milestones, including the $3,000 mark. Now, analysts predict it could climb to $4,000 in the coming weeks — a staggering rise that reflects growing investor panic.⁵

Market Predictions

The reasons are clear. As inflation heats up, and growth slows, Wall Street forecasters like Stifel, UBS, and Bank of America are warning of a rising risk of stagflation. This toxic mix of high inflation and sluggish growth poses a unique challenge for the Federal Reserve. And investors know it.

Goldman Sachs has slashed its forecast for the S&P 500, not once, but twice, this year. The bank now expects the benchmark index to return -5% over the next three months and just 6% over the next 12 months, down from earlier targets of 0% and 16%. They don’t expect the index to return to its all-time high of 6,100 anytime soon.

Goldman’s strategists also downgraded expectations for corporate earnings. They now forecast S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) growth of just 3% in 2025, down from 7%, and a similar drop in 2026. “Higher tariffs, weaker economic growth, and greater inflation than we previously assumed lead us to cut our S&P 500 EPS growth forecasts,” they said. In a recession, they estimate the S&P 500 could tumble to 4,600 — a 21% drop from current levels.⁶

Conclusion

This may be the beginning of a long decline in stock value. If the market continues along this trajectory, the economic pain could deepen. Gold has historically performed well in times of uncertainty. The flight to gold may just be getting started.

If you’re looking to protect your retirement savings, now may be the time to consider a Gold IRA. It offers a long-term safeguard against inflation, market volatility, and economic downturns. Call American Hartford Gold at 800-462-0071 to learn how to get started.

Notes:

1. https://newrepublic.com/post/194253/donald-trump-tariffs-economy-great-depression
2. https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQ2Qj42xMNtXa3F-8t6ifjRRx3SpCBVUoF1oA&s
3. https://newrepublic.com/post/194253/donald-trump-tariffs-economy-great-depression
4. https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/dow-jones-trump-tariffs-stock-market-b2737510.html
5. https://www.share-talk.com/dow-jones-on-track-for-worst-april-since-1932-as-gold-eyes-4000/
6. https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-sp500-recession-tariffs-goldman-sachs-stock-correction-2025-3

 

 

• Billionaire investor Ray Dalio warns the U.S. is on the brink of a major economic downturn
• Rising debt, trade chaos, and global instability could trigger a crisis worse than a recession
• Protect your portfolio from uncertainty by investing in physical gold through a Gold IRA

Dalio Warns of Economic Crisis

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates and the man who famously predicted the 2008 financial crisis, is sounding a new alarm. In recent comments, Dalio warned that the U.S. is approaching a recession, and potentially something far worse.

“Right now we are at a decision-making point and very close to a recession,” Dalio said. “And I’m worried about something worse than a recession if this isn’t handled well.”¹

Dalio’s concerns stem from several growing threats to the global economy. Threats such as rising national debt, disruptive trade policies, and a breakdown of long-standing political and economic systems. These forces, he warns, could converge into a crisis that may rival or even surpass the financial upheavals of 2008 or 1971, when the U.S. abandoned the gold standard.

A Ticking Time Bomb

At the heart of Dalio’s warning is the soaring U.S. debt, which now exceeds $36 trillion. He described the debt burden as a “ticking time bomb”. Dalio pointed to a fundamental “supply-demand problem for debt”. In other words, there’s too much debt and not enough buyers.

²

Congress, he says, must reduce the federal deficit to 3% of GDP to restore fiscal balance. But even that may not be enough to avoid economic turmoil.

Dalio also drew stark comparisons to the 1930s. He noted “profound changes” in both domestic and global orders. He said that the world is moving away from a multilateral order led by America. And it’s moving towards a more fragmented, conflict-driven unilateral one.

Disruptive Tariffs and Trade Uncertainty

Trade tensions are a major contributor to the instability. Tariffs aim to balance trade and bring production back home. But they are causing chaos in the global economy. Dalio likened the tariff policies to “throwing rocks into the production system.”  He said that although the goals may be understandable, the implementation has been “very disruptive.”³

The White House has announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs.  But they are maintaining a 10% baseline tariff and a 145% tariff on Chinese goods. Though some exemptions have been made for consumer electronics. With no clear end in sight, these rapidly shifting policies have upended international trade.  There is “tremendous uncertainty” about which tariffs will remain in place and for how long.

The administration says that the main aim of these policies is to restructure global trade. But Dalio fears they might trigger instability on a scale not seen in decades. “How that’s handled could produce something that is much worse than a recession,” he warned.⁴

A Breakdown of Monetary and Political Order

Dalio’s warnings go beyond trade.  “The far bigger, far more important thing to keep in mind is that we are seeing a classic breakdown of the major monetary, political, and geopolitical orders,” he said. “This sort of breakdown occurs only about once in a lifetime, but they have happened many times in history when similar unsustainable conditions were in place.”⁵

In his worst-case scenario, a financial and trade crisis could even escalate into a military conflict. “It’s going to be very severe,” he concluded.

Why Dalio Holds Gold

In the face of these dire predictions, Dalio uses gold as a hedge against risk.

“History and logic demonstrate that when there are substantial risks that debts will either default or be repaid with depreciated currency, both the debt and the currency become unappealing,” Dalio explained. “Gold, conversely, is a non-debt-backed form of money.”

He adds that gold is “like cash, except unlike cash and bonds, which are devalued by the risks of default or inflation, gold is bolstered by the risks of debt defaults and inflation.”⁶

As governments around the world attempt to manage their debt by printing more money, currencies risk losing value. This process, known as inflating the debt away, often leads to hyperinflation, another reason gold can serve as a safe haven.

Dalio describes gold as “money that I can go from one place to another with. And it’s accepted around the world; it’s accepted by central banks. Today, by the way, gold is the third-largest reserve after dollars and euros… it’s an asset that is not somebody else’s liability.”⁷

He also notes that gold typically has a negative correlation to traditional portfolios. Meaning it tends to rise when other assets fall. “If you were to say, what if I was to overlay gold in my portfolio, it would reduce the risk and increase the expected return.”

Conclusion

If you’re concerned about inflation, debt, and the possibility of a crisis worse than a recession, you’re not alone. Ray Dalio has studied history and sees troubling patterns repeating. He’s protecting his assets with gold, and you can do the same.

At American Hartford Gold, we help individuals protect their savings with physical gold held in a Gold IRA. You can take control of your financial future—call us today at 800-462-0071 to learn how.

Notes:

1. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/13/billionaire-ray-dalio-im-worried-about-something-worse-than-a-recession.html
2. https://www.crfb.org/blogs/12-month-rolling-deficit-21-trillion-march-2025
3. https://www.reuters.com/markets/wealth/bridgewaters-ray-dalio-says-trump-trade-war-has-put-us-close-recession-2025-04-13/
4. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/13/billionaire-ray-dalio-im-worried-about-something-worse-than-a-recession.html
5. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/investor-predicted-2008-financial-crisis-says-worried-something-worse-rcna201040
6. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/etf/billionaire-investor-ray-dalio-is-sticking-with-gold-as-a-hedge-against-inflation-history-and-logic-show-that-1033269427
7. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/etf/billionaire-investor-ray-dalio-is-sticking-with-gold-as-a-hedge-against-inflation-history-and-logic-show-that-1033269427

 

• U.S. Treasuries, once a cornerstone of financial stability, are losing their safe haven status amid rising yields and global uncertainty.
• Foreign investors are retreating from U.S. debt, and the unwinding of hedge fund strategies is adding to market volatility.
• As traditional safe havens falter, gold is emerging as a reliable shield against market instability and inflation.

A Market Once Seen as Untouchable

For decades, U.S. Treasuries were considered the bedrock of the global financial system. But today, confidence in the world’s biggest economy is under intense pressure as the $29 trillion Treasury market experiences a sharp and unsettling sell-off.

Prices on government bonds have plunged. Investors are questioning whether U.S. Treasuries still deserve their long-held status as a safe haven. ING analysts captured the market’s mood perfectly. Saying, “The ‘sell America’ trade is currently dominating the market,” affecting both stocks and bonds. ING continued, “Treasuries are not behaving as a safe haven.”¹

“Existential Financial Crisis”

Yields on the 10-year Treasury jumped to 4.45%. That’s a seven-week high and a significant leap from levels below 4% just days earlier. The 30-year bond rose above 5%, marking the biggest three-day surge since 1982. Because Treasury yields move inversely to bond prices, this jump signals a major decline in investor appetite for U.S. debt.²

Columbia economic historian Adam Tooze summed it up starkly: “This is the script for a truly existential financial crisis.” The ripple effect is already being felt. Rising yields increase borrowing costs across the globe. Businesses and households are now facing more expensive loans and mortgages. The gap between 2-year and 10-year yields widening to its largest point since 2022.³

The Sell-Off Sparks Global Alarm

This sudden turmoil has upended the traditional role of U.S. bonds as a refuge during economic stress. Stocks have also taken a hit, with the S&P 500 teetering on the edge of bear market territory, down more than 20% from recent highs.

The following chart shows the rise in implied volatility in the bond market, which reflects growing expectations of future price fluctuations in bonds.

⁴

The spark for the sell-off came from rising tariffs. China retaliated against U.S. tariffs of 104% with duties of its own totaling 84%. That initial jolt set off a fire sale, further fueled by growing fears of recession, inflation, and stagflation.

JP Morgan Asset Management declared, “The global safe haven status is in question.” Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers echoed the concern. He said the broader sell-off signaled a “generalized aversion to U.S. assets in global financial markets.”  Summers warned about the potential for a “serious financial crisis.”⁵

The Rush to Cash

Investors are made a “dash for cash” while the Dow tumbled more than 4,500 points. As a result, money market funds hit record highs through April 2.

This isn’t without precedent. In 2020, panicked investors also dumped bonds. And triggered a liquidity crunch so severe that the Federal Reserve had to step in and stabilize the market.

Also, the most recent bond auctions are drawing the least interest seen in years. Demand for U.S. Treasuries is waning, and the cost of insuring against a U.S. default is climbing.

Foreign Investors Are Pulling Back

“Markets are now concerned that China and other countries could ‘dump’ U.S. Treasuries as a retaliation tool,” said the chief investment adviser at BNP Paribas Wealth Management.⁶

Global institutional investors are already heavily invested in U.S. assets. Thanks to the dollar’s reserve status and America’s traditional reputation as a safe harbor, many funds had become overweight in U.S. debt. But now, with total U.S. debt surpassing $36 trillion and reaching over 120% of GDP, those same investors have plenty to offload.

China alone holds approximately $760 billion in U.S. Treasuries. But they’ve been reducing its holdings as it pursues de-dollarization.  If China accelerates these sales as a response to tariffs, it would be considered a financial “nuclear option.” Not only would it send U.S. interest rates soaring. It could spark an even deeper stock market sell-off. It would also depreciate the dollar and trigger another wave of inflation. China, too, would suffer, facing a rising yuan and steep losses on the bonds it sells.

The “Basis Trade” Unwinds

Another factor behind the bond market disruption is the unwinding of the so-called “basis trade.” In normal times, hedge funds are consistent buyers of Treasury bonds, using them to hedge against futures market exposure. Though the profit per trade is minuscule, it’s nearly risk-free—so firms use high leverage, sometimes as much as 50x to 100x.

But according to many reports, that trade is now unraveling. Hedge funds are no longer buying, and in many cases, they’re actively selling off their Treasury positions. Adding more pressure to an already volatile market.

Will the Fed Step In?

The Federal Reserve may be forced to respond by cutting rates more than previously expected. But the situation is complicated. Some experts believe the Fed is unlikely to intervene quickly. Especially as the effects of new tariffs continue to drive inflation higher.

Conclusion

The global economy is undergoing a dramatic transformation. Long-held assumptions are being challenged. Bonds are losing their safe haven status just when uncertainty is reaching new highs.

So where can Americans turn to protect their wealth? Increasingly, the answer is gold. Governments, institutions, and individuals are setting record demand for gold as a shield against market volatility. When held in a Gold IRA, gold offers long-term security—even when the traditional pillars of the financial system begin to crack. Call American Hartford Gold at 800-462-0071 to learn how you can protect your future with gold.

Notes:

1. https://www.axios.com/2025/04/09/bond-market-10-year-treasury-yield
2. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/09/business/economy/bonds-tariffs-safe-haven.html
3. https://www.axios.com/2025/04/09/bond-market-10-year-treasury-yield
4. https://archive.is/tofOI/3a551d17d654bb926a096952d7e35e112c16b125.jpg
5. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/09/business/economy/bonds-tariffs-safe-haven.html
6. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bond-rout-starting-sound-market-042240998.html

 

• BRICS are actively working to reduce global reliance on the U.S. dollar through de-dollarization and digital payment systems.
• A weaker dollar could lead to higher inflation, rising interest rates, and economic instability in the U.S.
• Precious metals held in a Gold IRA can help protect savings against the risks of de-dollarization.

BRICS and De-dollarization

De-dollarization is accelerating, and with it, the threat to the U.S. economy. The BRICS bloc has long sought to challenge the U.S. dollar’s dominance. Both to shield their economies from a weaponized dollar and to unseat the U.S. as the global superpower. As the movement gains momentum, concerns are growing. Especially now that the BRICS are exploring ‘digital dollars’ to disrupt the current financial order. The BRICS are taking a long-term, steady approach to de-dollarization. But once they succeed, the consequences for the U.S. will be severe. Americans need to start thinking long-term too, which means preparing now.

Trump Fights De-Dollarization

President Trump made his stance clear on this issue. He claimed that the BRICS bloc was “dead” and threatened to impose tariffs of 150% on imports from BRICS nations for “playing games with the dollar.” He also warned that if BRICS countries proceeded with their plans, they would lose the opportunity to sell any of their assets to the United States. ¹

BRICS Expansion

The BRICS bloc is continuing to expand its influence. Besides the original five members, the group has added Iran, Ethiopia, the UAE, Egypt, and Indonesia. Countries like Malaysia, Vietnam, and Thailand are now considered “partner countries.”

Together, it represents approximately 54.6% of the global population. 27% of the global nominal GDP and 36% of global GDP at Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). They occupy around 25% of the world’s total land area. BRICS has a significantly larger population and land area than the U.S. and Europe combined. The West may lead in nominal GDP but is comparable in GDP at PPP terms.²

³

A variety of factors are fueling de-dollarization. Countries like Russia, China, and Iran face the pressures of U.S. sanctions. Others, like Brazil, are motivated more by economic pragmatism than geopolitics. For years, the standard practice for international trade has been to first convert local currencies into U.S. dollars. Conduct the trade in dollars. And then convert back to the local currency. But this system can prove costly and inefficient. The BRICS nations are eager to find alternatives.

The Observa China think tank said, “The aim is to develop an alternative payment system allowing trade to be settled in local currencies, an idea that gains traction each time Washington imposes sanctions or exerts pressure on member states.”⁴

In fact, de-dollarization is already happening. Ninety five percent of trade between Russia and China is being conducted in rubles and yuan.

BRICS Goes Digital

The BRICS are taking major steps to build a new global financial infrastructure to rival the West. The bloc has created the New Development Bank as an alternative to the IMF. They see the IMF as a tool for Western control.  The BRICS nations are also creating a secure global messaging platform to compete with SWIFT, the dominant network for international bank transfers.

One notable initiative is the creation of BRICS Pay. It’s a decentralized payment system developed by China and Russia. This system aims to unite the financial markets of BRICS member states. Increasing trade volume and helping transactions as a result. It uses digital financial assets (DFAs) like cryptocurrencies and tokenized gold. By adopting DFAs such as blockchain networks, BRICS can bypass Western sanctions. They are making a digital end run around the U.S. dollar’s influence in international trade.

Russia has expressed confidence in the long-term potential of this shift. As one Russian official noted, “We should not expect a huge leap forward… there is still a long way to go to gradually transition from payments in national currencies to the creation of a single BRICS currency.” The creation of a single BRICS currency may still be distant goal. But the groundwork for de-dollarization is already being laid.⁵

Consequences of De-Dollarization

If the U.S. dollar loses its status as the world’s primary reserve and trade currency, the consequences could be far-reaching. A weaker dollar could result in reduced global demand. Thereby driving up the cost of imports and leading to higher inflation. With more expensive imports, businesses and consumers would face increased costs. This could push the U.S. to raise interest rates to attract investors. However, higher rates would also increase borrowing costs, further challenging the U.S. economy.

Additionally, a weaker dollar could lead to economic instability. It can cause market volatility and uncertainty. The U.S. would also lose much of its economic leverage. Imposing sanctions or influencing global trade could become impossible.

Conclusion

The BRICS nations are steadily pursuing de-dollarization. And now, they are adopting digital assets to break the world financial system. The U.S. economy faces significant threats. A weakening dollar, higher inflation, and rising interest rates are all possible.  And they all could have negative consequences for your savings and investments. To protect the value of your retirement funds during these uncertain times, consider putting your savings into physical precious metals. Held in a Gold IRA, they can help safeguard your financial future from the risks of de-dollarization. To learn more about how a Gold IRA can help secure your future, call 800-462-0071 today.

Notes
1. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3303030/de-dollar-diplomacy-brics-interest-alternative-global-currency-stirs-trumps-ire
2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRICS
3. https://www.isdp.eu/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Backgrounder-BRICS-Oct-19.pdf
4. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3303030/de-dollar-diplomacy-brics-interest-alternative-global-currency-stirs-trumps-ire
5. https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2025/03/27/brics-game-changing-blockchain-payment-system-the-future-of-global-transactions/

• Rising inflation and slowing growth spark renewed fears of stagflation.
• Stagflation puts the Fed in a no-win situation—fighting inflation risks hurting jobs, but easing up fuels inflation.
• Gold and silver can help protect retirement savings during economic turmoil.

Signs of Stagflation Grow

Investors are on edge as troubling signs emerge in the U.S. economy. The growing threat of stagflation, where inflation soars while jobs disappear, has them bracing for the worst. The Federal Reserve’s latest economic projections contributed to an 8% slump from an all-time high in the S&P 500 index. According to RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas, we may be heading into a period of “stagflation-lite.” A potentially disastrous situation for retirement savings.¹

The Federal Reserve’s Stagflation Warning

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently downgraded its economic growth outlook. They are predicting only a 1.7% expansion this year. That’s a 0.4 percentage point decline from its December forecast. At the same time, the committee raised its inflation expectations. Signaling uncertainty in its economic outlook.²

³

Fed officials are now facing a dilemma. If inflation doesn’t approach the 2% target, interest rates may stay high for an extended period. The Fed is taking a “wait and see” approach. They want to see how tariffs affect inflation and economic growth.

In theory, a weak economy with rising unemployment should stop inflation. The two shouldn’t coexist. One of the major challenges of stagflation is that it offers no easy fixes. The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate. It aims to control inflation and maximize employment. However, this creates a conflict. If the Fed raises rates to combat inflation, it can slow down economic growth and increase unemployment. Conversely, lowering rates could fuel inflation further.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee summarized the challenge. He said, “There is nothing more uncomfortable than a stagflationary environment, where both sides of the mandate start going wrong. There is not a generic answer… Is it worse on the inflation side or the job market side? Higher tariffs raise prices and reduce output—that is a stagflationary impulse.”⁴

A Return to 1970s Stagflation?

The current economy isn’t as bad as the stagflation of the 1970s…yet. But some economists say the conditions are starting to appear. The stagflation crisis of the 1970s was driven by oil price shocks and poor economic policies. Similarly, today’s rising national debt and increased money printing contribute to inflationary pressures. The money supply issue today feels more urgent than it did in the 70s. Making the battle against inflation even tougher.

Market Reactions and Strategies

Bank of America recently warned that the risk of stagflation is growing. They told clients to move from risky assets to safer investments. “In recent weeks, some of the economic data has weakened and inflation has stayed sticky, so that’s caused questioning of whether we could be in a stagflationary environment,” said Jill Carey Hall, a U.S. equity strategist at BofA.⁵

JP Morgan’s trading desk warned that the Fed’s new economic forecasts suggest stagflation. Economist Torsten Slok of Apollo Management emphasized the seriousness of the issue. Saying, “the Fed is worried that the ongoing stagflation shock is going to intensify further.” Meanwhile, Bankrate analyst Mark Hamrick echoed this sentiment. He stated, “Recession risks are clearly rising.”⁶

Gold and Precious Metals: A Safe Haven

Investors aiming to protect their portfolios during stagflation should look at safe-haven assets. Gold and silver can help. Unlike stocks, precious metals often gain value during recessions. This happens as fiat currencies lose their purchasing power.

Phil Carr of FXStreet noted, “Precious metals like gold, silver, platinum tend to be big winners in inflationary environments.” Recent data from GSC Commodity Intelligence supports this. It showed a record $4.9 billion flow into gold in February, the highest ever recorded.⁷

Conclusion

The U.S. economy isn’t at the stagflation levels seen in the 1970s, but warning signs are clear. High inflation, slow economic growth, and rising unemployment present a challenging economic landscape. The Federal Reserve is unsure of its next moves. Making it hard to predict how long these conditions will last.

In such uncertain times, protecting your wealth with gold and silver can be a prudent move. A Gold IRA from American Hartford Gold can help safeguard your retirement savings from the effects of stagflation. Call us today at 800-462-0071 to learn how you can secure your financial future with precious metals.

Notes
1. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/stagflation-radar-us-economy-no-repeat-70s-2025-03-25/
2. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4769977-is-1970s-stagflation-back
3. https://verifiedinvesting.com/blogs/verified-statistics/federal-reserve-sees-higher-inflation-slower-growth-ahead-stagflation
4. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/global-trends/us-news-stagflation-on-the-radar-for-the-us-economy-fed-chair-jerome-powells-big-remark-on-1970s-nightmare/articleshow/119477721.cms?from=mdr
5. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-24/bofa-dusts-off-stagflation-playbook-for-stocks-as-fed-flags-risk?embedded-checkout=true
6. https://www.audacy.com/wwl/news/national/is-stagflation-rearing-its-head-in-the-u-s
7. https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/could-stagflation-trigger-golds-next-big-move-video-202503121727