• U.S. hiring has slowed sharply, and layoffs are rising, straining both workers and consumer confidence.
• A weak labor market can slow spending, reduce business revenues, and weaken retirement savings growth.
• Physical gold or a Gold IRA can help protect your finances during periods of economic uncertainty.

Weakening Job Market Threatens the Economy and Retirement Funds

Economists are increasingly pointing to signs of strain in the U.S. labor market. On the surface, conditions appear stable: unemployment remains low, and output continues to grow. But beneath that strength, hiring has slowed to its weakest pace in more than a decade. Concerns are rising about how long the economy can maintain momentum. If the slowdown deepens, it could ripple through household finances, investment portfolios, and the broader path of economic growth.

KPMG’s chief economist Diane Swonk has called the current period a “jobless boom,” where output continues but hiring stalls. Earlier this year, analysts described a “low hire, low fire” environment. That balance has now shifted. Layoffs are rising, and job creation is falling.¹

Before the recent government shutdown interrupted official employment reporting, private data was already flashing caution. The hiring rate fell to 3.2 percent in August, matching its lowest level since 2013 outside the pandemic. Technology and warehousing firms, both adjusting to automation and AI-driven restructuring, have led the recent wave of job cuts.²

Layoffs Surge as Hiring Cools

U.S. companies have announced nearly 950,000 cuts between January and September. Major employers including UPS, Target, and IBM have laid off tens of thousands of workers in the just past few months. Projections suggest total layoffs could exceed one million by year-end.

In October alone, job losses reached 153,074, the highest for that month in more than twenty years. With hiring scarce, more than one-quarter of job seekers have now been unemployed for six months or longer.  A level rarely seen outside of recessions.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago estimates the unemployment rate has risen to 4.4 percent. While Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported a 175 percent jump in job cuts from a year earlier. Together, the data points to a labor market under strain, weakening even as overall output continues to grow.³

⁴

A Divided Economy

The slowdown is not affecting all Americans equally. Economists describe a “K-shaped” economy. That’s where wealthier households benefit from asset gains while lower-income workers face rising financial stress.

Consumer confidence has fallen near all-time lows. And small business optimism remains subdued amid persistent inflation and hiring challenges. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index dropped more than six percent in November. It remains about thirty percent below year-ago levels. ⁵

The divide is visible in financial markets. The S&P 500 has climbed more than sixteen percent in 2025. The Nasdaq Composite is up nearly twenty-two percent. It’s powered by enthusiasm around artificial intelligence. That narrow strength has kept corporate profits afloat for now. But it also underscores the fragility of a recovery increasingly dependent on wealthier consumers and elevated asset prices.

The Federal Reserve Walks a Tightrope

The Federal Reserve faces a difficult balance between stabilizing prices and sustaining employment. Job creation has decelerated sharply. It is averaging just 29,000 new positions per month between June and August.  A fraction of the 300,000 monthly average seen in early 2023.⁶

In response, the Fed has cut interest rates by twenty-five basis points in both September and October. The cuts brought its target range to 3.75 to 4.00 percent. Policymakers remain divided about whether another reduction will be needed in December. Chair Jerome Powell has described the situation as a “curious balance”.  Both labor supply and demand have declined simultaneously.⁷

That balance is delicate. A prolonged hiring slowdown could test how much the upper tier of the “K-shaped” economy can carry the rest. If employment weakens further, consumer spending may cool, pressuring both corporate earnings and stock valuations.

Why Labor Market Weakness Matters

A weakening job market carries lasting financial consequences. When unemployment rises, consumer spending slows, business revenues shrink, and the government must expand support programs. All of which can weigh on economic growth.

For individuals, the effects are personal and direct. Fewer people working means fewer contributions to retirement accounts like 401(k)s and IRAs. Some displaced workers may even tap into savings early, depleting funds meant for the future. Prolonged economic stress can also dampen market returns. This, in turn, erodes the value of retirement portfolios tied to corporate performance.

Periods like these tend to reveal just how vulnerable paper-based wealth can be when growth softens and volatility increases.

Gold’s Role in an Uncertain Economy

During times of economic uncertainty, gold has historically served as a reliable store of value. Unlike equities or bonds, it tends to move independently of financial markets, offering protection when other assets falter.

Gold also helps preserve purchasing power when government policy threatens to rekindle inflation. Because it carries no counterparty risk and maintains intrinsic value, gold remains one of the few assets trusted to endure periods of instability.

For investors seeking balance in an uneven economy, physical gold or a Gold IRA can act as a stabilizing anchor. To learn more, contact us today at 800-462-0071.

Notes:
1. https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/2025/11/07/economy-no-hiring/87149344007/
2. https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/2025/11/07/economy-no-hiring/87149344007/
3. https://markets.financialcontent.com/wral/article/marketminute-2025-11-7-federal-reserve-grapples-with-a-wobbling-job-market-implications-for-interest-rates-and-economic-stability
4. https://www.reuters.com/business/private-reports-suggest-us-labor-market-weakened-october-2025-11-06/
5. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/11/stocks-are-buoying-wealthy-sentiment-a-labor-market-break-could-end-that.html
6. https://markets.financialcontent.com/wral/article/marketminute-2025-11-7-federal-reserve-grapples-with-a-wobbling-job-market-implications-for-interest-rates-and-economic-stability
7. https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/2025/11/07/economy-no-hiring/87149344007/

Retirement in Uncertain Times

Many Americans thought they were doing everything right. They saved in their 401(k). They paid off their mortgage or built equity in their homes. They followed the plan. But now, that plan feels shaky.

A wave of layoffs is hitting those over 50 as new hiring slows. High mortgage rates and low supply are leaving homeowners “house rich and cash poor”. The stock market looks strong on paper but is held up by a small group of AI stocks that could easily stumble and punish 401(k)s.  Meanwhile, inflation keeps eating into savings, and debt keeps growing.

All of which are limiting contributions or forcing withdrawals. Which begs the question: how ready are Americans for retirement?

The Shrinking Nest Egg

The old “4% rule” says you can withdraw 4% of your nest egg each year and be safe. But that math falls apart fast. A $250,000 account gives you just $10,000 your first year. Add the average $24,000 in Social Security, and that’s $34,000 total. For most people, that barely covers essentials.

Goldman Sachs Asset Management says 58% of workers believe their savings won’t last thru retirement. That fear of running out of money is growing, and for good reason. Inflation and higher living costs are hitting everyone. Even households with solid incomes are often stretched thin, living paycheck to paycheck. They are weighed down by debt, lifestyle and healthcare costs. These expenses have forced many workers to dip into or pause their retirement savings. ¹

²

Greg Wilson is head of retirement at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. He stressed that simply saving more may not be enough. He said many people will need more thoughtful investment and retirement income strategies to close their savings gap.³

A National Savings Shortfall

Other sources echo similar concerns. Data shared by Dave Ramsey found that 42% of Americans are not saving for retirement at all. Only about half have calculated how much they will need. Vanguard’s national analysis showed that three in five Americans are not on track to meet their retirement spending needs. The rest face an estimated $5,000 annual shortfall.⁴

For many, that means they may need to work longer, scale back spending, or find other income sources. The Motley Fool reported that 47% of working households risk falling short, with over half having less than $100,000 saved. One in three has less than $25,000. These statistics show how fragile America’s retirement situation is. ⁵

Retirement Crisis Becomes National Threat

The consequences go beyond the personal. When half the country can’t afford to retire, the entire nation feels the strain. As more seniors struggle to meet basic needs, demand for Social Security, Medicare, and other safety nets will surge. The government will be forced to spend more at a time when astronomical debt is already consuming its budget.

That pressure could lead to higher taxes, more borrowing, and painful cuts to health, defense, and infrastructure. Rising interest payments and ongoing deficits would only tighten the squeeze. Leaving fewer options to respond to future crises. Over time, this imbalance could weaken growth, increase inequality, and erode public trust. What starts as an individual retirement crisis could quickly become a national one.

Building a More Secure Future

The numbers paint a difficult picture. But the good news is that individuals can still strengthen their retirement outlook. Start by making full use of your employer plan and matching contributions. Combine scattered retirement accounts so you can track your progress. If possible, delay taking Social Security to boost your monthly income later. That can increase payments by about 8% per year for each year benefits are delayed beyond full retirement age.⁶

But the key is to prepare wisely, not just save. A diversified approach that includes tangible assets can give your portfolio strength when markets fall.

Gold’s Role in a Stronger Retirement Plan

Physical gold remains one of the most reliable ways to protect long-term wealth. It holds value through inflation, market downturns, and economic uncertainty. Unlike paper assets, gold is real and in your control.

Including even a small percentage of physical gold in your retirement portfolio can help balance risk. Gold often moves separately from stocks and bonds, offering stability when markets swing. Through a Gold IRA, investors can hold physical gold with the same tax advantages as traditional retirement accounts.

Gold is also liquid, meaning it can be converted to cash when needed. It’s a hedge, a store of value, and a safeguard against the unexpected.

Conclusion

There is a growing retirement readiness gap across income levels and age groups. Inflation, debt, and market concentration have created new challenges that traditional savings strategies may not fully solve.

A diversified approach that includes physical gold can provide a more stable foundation for the years ahead. In a time when too many Americans are uncertain about their retirement future, holding tangible wealth can offer lasting peace of mind. Contact American Hartford Gold today at 800-462-0071 to learn how physical precious metals can benefit you.

Notes
1. https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2025/11/04/vortex-hitting-workers-retirement-savings
2. https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2025/11/06/how-americans-are-feeling-about-their-finances-as-they-age/
3. https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2025/11/04/vortex-hitting-workers-retirement-savings
4. https://www.the-express.com/finance/personal-finance/189428/dave-ramsey-retirement-saving-advice
5. https://www.fool.com/retirement/2025/11/05/are-americans-ready-for-retirement-the-motley-fool/
6. https://www.aol.com/finance/despite-shortfalls-america-retirement-picture-140000452.html

• Wall Street leaders warn record-breaking stock rally could soon face a major correction.
• Economists say inflated valuations and weakening fundamentals point to a growing market bubble.
• Safeguard your finances from potential downturns by diversifying with physical gold.

Wall Street Warns of Market Trouble

Equities worldwide have been on a tear this year, hitting record highs across continents. Artificial intelligence, rate cuts, and easing global tensions are fueling this surge. In the past month alone, major U.S. indexes have reached new peaks. Japan’s Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s Kospi have hit fresh highs. And China’s Shanghai Composite has touched its strongest level in a decade.

The government shutdown, tariffs, and ongoing economic uncertainty have not stopped this rally. Yet, what markets have not been able to avoid is a clear warning from Wall Street itself.

Major Banks Urge Caution

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have both urged caution. “It’s likely there’ll be a 10 to 20% drawdown in equity markets sometime in the next 12 to 24 months,” said Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon.¹

Morgan Stanley’s CEO Ted Pick echoed that sentiment. He said, “We should also welcome the possibility that there would be drawdowns, 10 to 15% drawdowns that are not driven by some sort of macro cliff effect.”²

These warnings follow similar cautions from the International Monetary Fund, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. All of whom pointed to stretched valuations in global markets. Portfolio managers have been warning all year about rising volatility. They noted the potential for a rough landing as we head into the end of the year.³

Some strategists suggest that even a small correction could spook retail investors. Leading to a deeper and longer market pullback. Others believe what lies ahead could be more than just a pullback. It could be a major market collapse.

Michael Burry’s Bearish Bets

Michael Burry is known for his successful bet against the housing market before the 2008 financial crisis. He is again positioning himself for turbulence. Burry’s bearish stance aligns with the growing sense of caution among Wall Street leaders. Burry has taken out put options, trades that profit when prices fall, against Nvidia and Palantir, two of the most closely watched tech stocks.

Palantir beat revenue estimates and raised its full-year outlook to $4.4 billion. However, its shares still fell as much as 7% the following day. The reaction reflected broader market unease about valuations rather than company fundamentals.

“Sometimes, we see bubbles. Sometimes, there is something to do about it. Sometimes, the only winning move is not to play,” Burry said.⁴

Are We in a Bubble?

Economist David Rosenberg believes the U.S. stock market has entered a “classic price bubble.” He points to a divergence between soaring equity prices and weakening fundamentals. The manufacturing sector, measured by the ISM index, has been contracting for eight consecutive months. At the same time, industrial hiring and production remain subdued.⁵

Tech spending has ballooned at a 17% annual rate. But other forms of capital spending have fallen 3%. The result is an economy heavily tilted toward technology. Other sectors are left struggling.

Rosenberg points to multiple valuation metrics. The Buffett Indicator, the S&P 500 Price-to-Earnings Ratio, the Price-to-Sales Ratio, and the CAPE ratio all show how inflated stock prices have become after years of easy monetary policy. The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has expanded from $900 billion in 2007 to $7.2 trillion today.  Interest rates were kept near zero for nearly 14 years. Those policies injected massive liquidity into the system, distorting asset prices.⁶

Now, many capital-intensive industries are showing weak or negative growth. The labor market is softening. And consumer sentiment is slipping. While tech stocks continue to rise, much of the broader economy is struggling. They are weighed down with higher borrowing costs and persistent inflation.

The Stock Market and the Economy Are More Intertwined Than Ever

The traditional separation between Wall Street and Main Street has grown smaller. Rising asset prices are increasing the ‘wealth effect’. The wealth effect is the idea that when people feel wealthier because their assets rise in value, they tend to spend more. This boosts overall economic activity. Research from Oxford Economics shows that every 1% increase in stock wealth translates into a 0.05% increase in consumer spending. With consumption representing about 70% of GDP, stock gains are having a powerful ripple effect across the economy.

But this relationship cuts both ways. If markets falter, the reverse can occur. A falling stock market can slow spending and weaken an already fragile economy. Research from Moody’s found that the top 10% of earners accounted for half of all consumer spending in the second quarter. Underscoring how closely the economy’s strength is tied to market wealth.

Bernard Yaros is the lead economist at Oxford Economics. He wrote, “While the stock market is not the economy, the latter risks greater whiplash from the ups and downs in the former.”⁸

Conclusion

The wealth effect that lifts the economy when markets rise can also drag it down when bubbles burst. Falling stock prices can erode retirement accounts. They can also diminish household wealth, leaving families vulnerable. For long-term protection from market volatility, physical gold offers a proven alternative.

Gold’s value does not depend on corporate earnings, interest rate forecasts, or monetary policy. It retains purchasing power when financial assets falter. Making it an essential foundation for preserving wealth in uncertain times.

Notes:
1. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/04/goldman-sachs-morgan-stanley-warn-of-a-market-correction.html
2. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/04/goldman-sachs-morgan-stanley-warn-of-a-market-correction.html
3. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/04/goldman-sachs-morgan-stanley-warn-of-a-market-correction.html
4. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/michael-burry-of-big-short-fame-discloses-bets-against-palantir-and-nvidia-160833044.html
5. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4837523-market-in-a-classic-price-bubble
6. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4837523-market-in-a-classic-price-bubble